the way I hope yesterday didn't start for you

A short post to tide you (and me) over on this long weekend... the traffic jam from Godard's Weekend. The fights, the smashed cars, the couple playing the board game in the road, the monkey and llama, the children playing, and everyone ignoring the bodies of the victims of the crash that has caused all this; the vision and distance of this remind me of Brueghel or Bosch.

Happy happy! See you Monday. (Or Tuesday, you government and bank drones.)

jean-luc godard, direct marketing philosopher

Just after I started at Wunderman I went through a phase of needing to watch a lot of European and Japanese movies that were as un-mainstream as I could find. Something about revelling in complexity and nuance, after a hard day of learning to simplify my writing and hearing "make the offer stronger."

That's how one night I stumbled into Godard's Alphaville. I have to admit, it's not my favourite movie, or even my favourite Godard movie. (Okay, so I've only seen four, but it's a wonderfully pompous thing to write.) But at some point, the protagonist, a secret agent named Lemme Caution, stares off into the futuristic shadows of Paris and says something that made me rewind the tape just so I could be sure of what the subtitles said.

"We have become slaves to probability."

Well, I thought, that pretty much sums up direct marketing right there. Probability is the business model. I find out something about you – you subscribe to a parent magazine, or bought a bag of grass seed – and I use that information to more cost-effectively sell you something else. I can't know for sure that you'll buy my diaper service or atomic lawnmower, but that information increases my odds that you will. And since this is a world in which only 2% or 3% of people have to respond for me to make money, anything that makes your response more probable has enormous value.

Your individual response doesn't have to fit the model. The fact that you didn't like the mailing is too bad, but it doesn't mean anything. As long as the clump of probability holds together and I make money, it works.

The digital age hasn't fundamentally changed this model, not yet. Yes, people can be more finely targeted, but they are still targeted in groups. Businesses still can't afford talk to everyone differently on an individual basis. They still have to play the odds. 

It's not the happiest thought, obviously, especially not twelve years down the road. But I still can't help but think it's basically true.

I just wish Godard had managed to wedge the line into Pierrot le Fou. I actually enjoy that movie.